Without leaders, how do you negotiate?

[danohu]

The organized opposition don't matter much to the protests in Egypt. Everything is being arranged online, and through informal networks.

Given that -- how are they ever going to reach a compromise with the government?

In a movement with leaders, this follows an intuitive pattern. The authorities talk to the leaders, grant some of their demands, and persuade them to call off the protests. If needed, they can add some extra pressure with personal bribes or threats.

Without leaders, this just doesn't work. The government can offer things to the protesters, but has no way of getting a halt to the protests in return. So any concessions they do make will just encourage the rebels to continue with further demands.

So: either the demonstrations gradually peter out, without being able to force any change. Or the government reacts with violence, terrifies people out of joining the protests. Or, just possibly, things escalate until the government falls, accompanied by who knows how much violence.

But I can't see how the Jan25 movement -- or any movement without an ability to negotiate -- can end with some kind of moderate, limited success.

Am I wrong?

Comments

[delkaetre-ni.livejournal.com]

Leaderless protest is sensible when there is a clear, single goal and you do not trust the people you are protesting against- the UK has a few recent examples with the Anon v Scientology thing (strip them of their status as a religion, basically), and the more recent student protests (don't raise the fees and cut EMA).

When it's just a massive general Being Angry At Things, though, there's no way to see what's needed to stop the protests. If it's just discontent at the state, the state would do well to look at blogs and see what gets complained about the most - maybe some reforms on the judicial system would cool things down enough to take the wind out of the protestors' sails, or possibly an agreement to subsidise food and provide better healthcare in built up and slum areas.

But again, that circles back to there being an identifiable goal. No identifiable goal or reasoning, no method of soothing the mob.

[delkaetre-ni.livejournal.com]

Just checked Twitter - it's all kicked off pretty badly. Suez locked down, attempts being made to cut off or stifle all outside communications, and the army's gone in full tilt. Looks like "government reacts with violence" was the correct answer.

http://twitter.com/search?q=suez

[iain666.livejournal.com]

Was there any kind of organised leadership in Tunisia?

Whether that will pan out as more of the same with a different face at the top does still remain to be seen, but they certainly ousted the president.

[gerald_duck]

In terms of history repeating itself, the current situation in Egypt most reminds me of the lead-up to the Tiananmen Square massacre. Egypt is, by my understanding, a heavily militarised nation, with an entire parallel infrastructure for service personnel: their own supermarkets, leisure facilities, etc. The entire military is strongly motivated to preserve their privileges under the status quo and insulated from the consequences of damage to the civilian infrastructure, so things could get quite ugly.